Archive for the ‘Current Topics’ Category

The Cost of the Census

Monday, April 19th, 2010

There are a lot of benefits from completing the census every 10 years. Mainly that having accurate data census data helps ensure that the seats in the House of Representatives are apportioned properly and helps decide where more than $400 billion dollars per year is allocated to projects like schools, hospitals, and construction. Over a 10 year period that comes out to $ 4 trillion dollars which is not pocket change, even for the US Government. The question is does it have to be so expensive to collect the census information.

The total bill for the 2010 Census is going to be about $15 billion dollars. Here is how the expenses stack up:

  • $4.33 Billion – Other Expenses (Headquarters costs, planning, research, and tests)
  • $2.74 Billion – Non-Response Follow Up (Temporary workers visit households that did not mail back the form)
  • $2.05 Billion – IT Systems for Collection and Data Assessment (Contracts awarded to Harris Corp, Lockhead Martin, and IBM)
  • $1.70 Billion – American Community Survey (Extra socioeconomic, housing data collected annually)
  • $1.5 Billion – Regional and Local Offices and Staff
  • $654 Million – Other FY 2010 Field Operations
  • $500 Million – Master Address File, Mapping
  • $341 Million – Vacancy Confirmation – After a failed attempt to follow up, workers verify homes
  • classified as vacant or uninhabitable
  • $338 Million – Advertising and Communications
  • $257 Million – Postage
  • $116 Million – Printing

I do not have enough of the details to determine how to lower the cost of collecting census data, just that from a high level it looks very expensive and whenever something costs $15 Billion dollars there is probably room for improvement

The Copenhagen Climate Conference

Sunday, December 27th, 2009

’wind.jpg'

There was a lot of hoopla surrounding this month’s climate conference in Copenhagen, Denmark. At the heart of the meetings attended by global leaders was the hope there would be agreement on a plan to reduce greenhouse gases across the world. Unfortunately such an agreement was not able to be reached.

The difficulties stemmed from the last climate conference 13 years ago in Kyoto. At that conference industrialized countries agreed that they would help finance the reduction of greenhouse gas (carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, and sulphur hexafluoride) worldwide. Two countries in particular, China and India were considered developing countries in 1997 and were set to receive benefits from industrialized nations. Since 1997, a lot has changed in the worldwide economic landscape and China and India are no longer developing nations. China still would like their cut of money to reduce greenhouse gases.

What does this mean for alternative energy, which would have definitely benefited from a worldwide climate accord agreement? While I think that an agreement would have been a boost to the clean-tech energy industry, I am still bullish on the industry long-term. Individual countries, including the United States will go forward with their individual plans on developing cleaner energy sources. In the US, billions of dollars have been earmarked for the alternative energy, and where the money goes, talent will follow. With all of the research and innovation done in this space, I think it is a matter of time before a clean energy source is developed that is cheaper than oil. That will be the game-changer.

Strikeforce MMA Review

Sunday, November 15th, 2009

Taking a break from writing about Finance and the economy this post is going to be about the Strikeforce MMA event I attended over the weekend in Chicago. The main event in the fight matched Fedor Emelianko a Russian heavyweight who has not lost a fight since 2000, against Brett Rogers, a guy from Minnesota who a couple of months ago was changing tires at Sam’s club. The writing was on the wall for a Rocky vs Drago or Buster Douglas vs. Mike Tyson upset. The event was broadcast live on CBS and the following are my observations. Let me know what you thought of the event.

  • The energy in the arena was higher than any UFC I have been to and there is definitely an aura surrounding Fedor that right now, no other fighter has. The arena, while only holding 13,000 seats was sold out. After the lackluster fight between Shields and Miller the large screens showed Fedor in his locker room and the place erupted in cheers.
  • ’arena.jpg'

  • There were lots of fighter celebrities in attendance; however none received more of a crowd around them then Andrei Arlovski. Maybe it was because he trains out of Chicago, or maybe it was because he was the only person to fight both Fedor and Rogers, getting knocked unconscious by both of them.
  • ’arlovski.jpg'

  • Outside of Fedor the largest ovation anyone received was when they announced Big John McCarthy as the referee. Maybe he should be renamed Little John as he has shed a few pounds since he started the phrase “Let’s get it on” in UFC 1.
  • Jake Shields is dominating on the ground. I don’t think he pushed too hard during his fight against Jayson Miller to finish it though and was content winning a unanimous decision grappling match. I’ll give him a pass because he finished 9 fights in a row prior to this fight, but he also has to work on his standup which seems a little amateurish. The day he meets someone he cannot take down he will be in trouble. Watching Miller’s introduction, I think a fight against Phil Baroni would be as much entertainment one could have before the fight.
  • Fedor’s finished the fight by knocking Brett Rogers out in the second round. Fedor mostly dominated the fight however Rogers did have his moments. Right after the opening bell Rogers opened up a cut on Fedor’s nose and potentially broke it. Later in the round Rogers reversed Fedor from the ground and landed 3-4 flush punches to Fedor’s head. After the fight people commented that Fedor was exposed in the fight. I agree that it is just a matter of time before Fedor loses; however part of Fedor’s mystique is that he takes punishment in almost all of his fights; however he recharges like the Terminator to win all of the time.

  • ’fedor.jpg'

  • The undercard left a lot to be desired. It was filled with local fighters from Chicago and Indiana with only. The woman’s fight was the best fight on the undercard and I am interested in seeing how the winner will do against Cyborg. I would actually rather have watched Gina Carrano fight again.

Cash for Clunkers: Edmunds vs The White House

Saturday, October 31st, 2009

The wildly popular Cash for Clunkers program gave car buyers rebates of up to $4,500 for trading in less fuel-efficient cars for ones that were more fuel efficient. The administration set aside $3 billion to pay for the program. 690,000 vehicles were sold under the program.

The White House Administration touts the success of the program stating that it gave the auto industry a much needed boost in the third quarter this year. But was the program as beneficial as it seemed to be. Automotive website Edmunds.com does not think so and released a report this month claiming making their claim http://www.edmunds.com/help/about/press/159446/article.html.

Edmunds claim is that of the 690,000 vehicles sold under the program, all but 125,000 would have been bought anyways in 2009. So far the 4th quarter auto sales numbers seem to back that claim as we are on track for the worst quarter ever in auto sales. Edmunds also states that the government (or the taxpayers) spent $24,000 for each of those 125,000 cars.

This Administration fired back stating that the program provided a much needed boost to the auto industry which was on the brink of collapsing in the 3rd quarter.

It is impossible to tell what would of happened to the auto industry or overall economy had the program not be instituted. My main issues with the program were the government pushing what type of car one should buy as well as the fact that a majority of the money used for the program was taken out of a pool of money that was slated for clean energy initiatives such as Wind, Solar, and other alternative energies.

The Pulse of the Economy

Tuesday, October 20th, 2009

There was reason to cheer last week after the DOW crossed the 10,000 mark for the first time in over a year. The stock market advanced was fueled by a couple of sources including inflation being under control , less jobless claims than expected, and decent corporate earnings.
Not all things were rosy though as Congress announced that as expected there would be no Cost of Living Adjustment (COLA) increase for Social Security recipients. Another area of concern is in the banking industry. Citigroup announced bad mortgages were impacting it’s earnings this quarter. Capital One, JP Morgan, and Citigroup said that they were starting to feel the effects of credit card defaults. A while ago credit card defaults were seen to be the next bubble collapse after the housing industry collapse of last year. When I read this the first thing I thought of was how I used to get a mailing from Capital One every week about opening up a credit card with them and how they probably sent those mailings out to anyone with a pulse. Now it is coming back to bite them.

I am looking forward to next week. Oil prices seem to be on the move upward and there is starting to be chatter about Commercial Real Estate being the next bubble to burst. Lou Young from CBS did an interesting special on local towns losing businesses. http://www.videowired.com/video/?id=1571309631

The Retirement Fitness Challenge

Sunday, October 18th, 2009

I have put together a program designed to help people find out where they are with respect to meeting their financial goals during retirement. The earlier that someone gets a handle on where they are, the easier it is for them to make any adjustments should they need to. The program is designed not only for people nearing retirement, but also people already retired, or those 10-15 years away from retiring.

’FitnessChallenge.jpg'

Obamas Speech to the Students

Tuesday, September 29th, 2009

’obama.jpg'

In Obama’s short time in office we have found that he is definitely a polarizing figure. Conservatives claim that he is the next coming of Karl Marx, while Liberals believe that he is the savior and will fix all of the damage caused by President Bush.

No matter whether you lean to the left or the right, you would have to agree with the message he gave during his September 8th speech to students. Obama didn’t use the forum to push his healthcare plan or discuss any partisan issues. He stressed the importance of education and how important it is to stay in school. Even more important he made each student accountable for their future. How good or how bad you do in school is up to you, not up to your teachers, coaches, or even your parents. Obama showed that he was a leader during the speech and I have no problem with him trying to motivating our students to achieve their goals.

You can read the text of the speech here

How does your 401k plan stack up?

Saturday, September 12th, 2009

Every 401k plan is different in the investment options they offer, the fees the plan charges, and the matches that the company provides on your contributions. At stake are thousands of dollars. The spotlight has been put on 401k plans recently because of some of the exorbitant fees they charge, however not many changes have been put in place to benefit employees.

If you want to see how your 401k plan stacks up, visit the website www.brightscope.com. They currently rank over 4,000 401k plans and give them a score of 1-100 based on administrative costs, investment options and returns, and employer contributions. For example the Google 401k plan received a score of 80 for it’s low fees and generous employer matches. By the end of the year Bright Scope expects to have 30,000 401k plans ranked. If your 401k plan is not currently ranked, they will rank if for you if you provide some basic plan information.

Old Man Couture

Saturday, September 5th, 2009

’couture.jpg'

If someone tells you that you are too old to do something point them to the accomplishments of MMA fighter Randy Couture. Just last weekend at the age of 46 Randy stepped into the octagon to headline the UFC event in Portland, Oregon.

You might not think that 46 is that old, but you are going to have trouble finding too many world-class athletes that are 46 years old, never mind ones who make their living in a cage against someone trying to knock them unconscious or rip off an arm or leg.

Randy didn’t win his fight, losing a unanimous decision against Rodrigo Nogueira, a 33 year old Brazilian who has a dent in his back from being run over by a truck when he was younger. In the post-fight interview Nogueira called Couture his idol.

Yes, there is the chance that Couture is full of HGH and other performance enhancing drugs, but since he has never failed a drug test and nicknames are “The Natural” and “Captain America” I’ll give him the benefit of the doubt.

I’m not advocating that senior citizens put on gloves and duke it out, but it is inspiring to see someone defy father time and achieve their goals.

The Fury against Leveraged ETFs

Saturday, September 5th, 2009

There has been a lot of press recently about leveraged ETF’s and how bad they are for investors. Several brokerages such as Wells Fargo are banning their advisors from selling them and there are even cases of class action lawsuits against them because people have lost money investing in them. I don’t understand all the hoopla. These ETF’s clearly state that they are leveraged and what their risks are. I believe we should be spending more time looking into hidden fees in investment vehicles such as 401k plans, annuities, and 529 plans. (Burying fee and expense information in a 50 page prospectus does not constitute being upfront)

About a year and a half ago, I was talking to my friend Michael Sipper about the crazy run in the price of oil at the time and whether we thought it had more to go up or if there was going to be a pullback and it would make sense to short it. Instead of buying crude oil contracts on the commodities exchange Mike suggested looking into two ETF’s called DIG and DUG which track the Dow Jones Oil and Natural Gas Index. Mike said that these two ETF’s are leveraged and if the Dow Jones Oil and Natural gas Index goes up two points, your investment in Dig goes up 4 points. Conversely if the Dow Jones Oil and Natural gas Index goes down 3 points, your investment in Dig goes down 6 points. It was pretty clear to understand what my risk would be if I invested in these.

I currently do not have any of my clients in leveraged ETF’s, however I could see their purpose in a portfolio, especially to provide a hedge. Pundits claim that they are not meant to be long-term investments. I disagree. Even As a short term investment the expense ratio’s on the ETF’s make them a lot cheaper than if you were to use margin.