The Monthly Market Wrap provides an insightful analysis of treasury yields, fixed income performance, mega-cap stocks, and key economic indicators in March 2026. It also delves into housing market data and the performance of commodities.
Key Stock Market Index Performance
Markets fell hard in March, with emerging markets posting the worst month, down 13%. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq both dropped by nearly 5%, and all major indices were negative for the month.
Sector performance followed a similar path, with all but one sector falling by more than 3% in March. The lone exception was energy, which advanced 10.3% due to energy constraints resulting from the U.S. strikes on Iran in late February. This marks two consecutive months of near 10% gains in this sector.
Related Reading: How Energy Disruptions Influence Markets
Economic Data
Employment
The unemployment rate increased by 0.1% to 4.4%, and the economy lost 92,000 jobs according to the most recent nonfarm payrolls report. This came in well below the Dow Jones estimate of 50,000.
The Labor Force Participation Rate decreased by 0.1% to 62.00% in February.
Inflation vs. Fed Funds Rate
The inflation rate remained unchanged in February at 2.40%, as did core inflation at 2.50%.
The CME FedWatch tool indicates less than 1% chance of the first rate cut in 2026 during the FOMC’s next meeting on April 29th. Rates were held steady at 3.50-3.75% in March, as Jerome Powell’s term winds closer to an end.
Housing Prices and Mortgage Rates
Existing Home Sales increased by 1.74% MoM in February, following its largest monthly decline since April of 2020. The Median Sales Price of Existing Homes increased modestly to $398,000, a second consecutive reading below $400,000.
Mortgage rates upticked in March, ending the month at 5.75% for the 15-year and 6.38% for the 30-year. New Single-Family Home Sales experienced its worst MoM decline in nearly 13 years, falling 17.56% in January.
Oil Surges on Iranian Conflict
The most immediate effects of Middle Eastern conflicts are seen in oil prices, as markets quickly factor in the risk of disrupted supply and transportation. This became evident in March, as the price of Brent crude reached over $100 per barrel for the first time since August 2022.
In March alone, Brent crude rose by 70.9%, as WTI increased by 50.4%. To contextualize this leap, during the opening month of the Gulf War in 1990, Brent Crude rose only as high as 45% at its peak.
Fixed Income
Treasury yields rose sharply in March, with the 1-month the lone exception, remaining unchanged at 3.74%. The 3-year saw the biggest advancement, up 42 bps to 3.81%. The 2-, 5-, 10-, and 20-year all ticked up by more than 30 bps.
Bautis Financial LLC is a registered investment advisor. Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to first consult with a qualified financial advisor and/or tax professional before implementing any strategy discussed herein. Past performance is not indicative of future performance.
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