Monthly Market Wrap: November 2025

The Monthly Market Wrap provides an insightful analysis of treasury yields, fixed income performance, mega-cap stocks, and key economic indicators in November 2025. It also delves into housing market data and the performance of commodities.

Key Stock Market Index Performance

Markets were relatively flat in November despite heightened volatility as the S&P 500 posted a gain of 0.3%. Emerging markets took the biggest hit, ending the month down 2.4%, followed by the Nasdaq, which declined 1.5%.

Sector performance was largely positive in November, led by the Healthcare sector, which advanced 9.3%. Technology lagged, down 4.8%, as Nvidia’s Q3 earnings dominated headlines. Despite a strong report, markets dropped off due to renewed concerns about an AI-driven market bubble. Communication, Real Estate, and Financials were all positive for the month.

Economic Data

Employment

September’s employment data has finally been released following the conclusion of the longest government shutdown in US history. The unemployment rate ticked up to 4.4%, and 119,000 jobs were added to the U.S. economy according to the nonfarm payrolls report. This came in well above the Dow Jones estimate of 50,000, a surprising beat for the first time in five months. 

The Labor Department has confirmed the cancellation of October’s reports, although advisors can continue to track labor conditions in YCharts using alternative datasets. ADP Employment Change and ADP Private Employment provide monthly updates on private-sector payroll growth, while the Challenger Report highlights announced layoffs and sector-level shifts.

Inflation vs. Fed Funds Rate

The Bureau of Labor Statistics has canceled the release of October’s inflation data, a big decision just before the Federal Reserve’s December rate meeting. In September, the US inflation rate rose to 3.01% and the US Consumer Price Index sits at 0.3% MoM.

The FedWatch tool now indicates an over 85% chance for a third consecutive cut when the FOMC meets next on December 10th. Despite lacking the full scope of key economic indicators, investors are increasingly pricing in another 25 basis point cut to close out 2025.

Housing Prices and Mortgage Rates

Existing Home Sales increased by 1.2% MoM in October, and the Median Sales Price of Existing Homes remains at $415,200. Mortgage rates increased slightly throughout November, with the 15-year Mortgage Rate at 5.51% and the 30-year at 6.23% to end the month.

While US New Single-Family Home Sales remain unreported, the NAHB Housing Market Index can be used to measure homebuilder confidence, providing an early indication of construction sentiment and future building activity.

Major Cryptocurrencies Turn Negative YTD

Major cryptocurrencies posted a very rough November, with both major players down nearly 20%. Bitcoin fell 17.5% (~$19,000 per coin) to below $100,000 for the first time since May. This month wiped out all of 2025’s gains, shockingly leaving the asset down over 2% YTD.

Ethereum struggled even more, down 22.2% in November, following a 9.8% decline in October. This move leaves ETH down 11% in 2025, despite a record-breaking summer period.

U.S. Treasury Yield Curve

Treasury yields declined across the curve in November, with the 30-year yield serving as the lone outlier that remained unchanged. The largest decline occurred in the 2-year, which dropped 13 basis points to 3.47%, followed by the 5-year, which fell 12 basis points to 3.59%.

Bautis Financial LLC is a registered investment advisor. Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to first consult with a qualified financial advisor and/or tax professional before implementing any strategy discussed herein. Past performance is not indicative of future performance.