New cases of COVID-19 are climbing fast in the United States, yet in the United Kingdom, where the highly contagious Delta variant hit first, the number of cases have dropped sharply from a peak in late July.
The U.K. was averaging 47,000 cases a day on July 21, according to data from the New York Times, but is now down to 27,000 a day, after cases began ticking up slightly as of the beginning of last weekend. Meanwhile the U.S. is now averaging 124,000 new cases a day, up 118% over the past 14 days. Deaths have doubled over the same period.
When will the U.S. follow the U.K.’s downward trajectory? The jury is out. On Tuesday, analysts from Raymond James and RBC Capital Markets published conflicting views.
- RBC Capital Markets analyst Brian Abrahams wrote that he expects cases in the U.S. to continue to climb, peaking at up to 300,000 cases a day. He predicted that they will begin to fall just before Labor Day, which is in about four weeks.
- Raymond James analyst Chris Meekins argued that cases of the Delta variant are already at their high point in the U.S. He wrote, “I may regret these words, but based on our analysis, I believe cases in the U.S. of the Delta variant are peaking.”
No matter the outcome, the immediate future looks challenging.
It’s worth noting that less than 1% of fully vaccinated people experience a breakthrough COVID-19 infection, according to a Kaiser Family Foundation analysis of official United States data. If you are fearful of illness or hospitalization, vaccines are still widely available for those residing in the US.
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